The Amazon Is Burning Again, and NASA Says the Worst May Be Yet to Come
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On 12 October 2026, a NASA satellite photographed thick smoke pouring from fires on both sides of the Amazon River and settling over Manaus, a city of more than two million people. Schools closed and public events were canceled. The Amazon fires 2026 season is being driven by the strengthening super El Niño, and NASA scientists warn it is part of a larger chain reaction that may not have peaked.
What's happening in the Amazon
- Fires surged from September. Satellites showed a sharp rise in fires and smoke across the central and eastern Amazon.
- Big jumps in hotspots. Brazil's space agency INPE counted 9,045 fire hotspots in the Brazilian Amazon in the first half of October, about 62% more than the same period a year earlier.
- Dangerous air. Fine-particle pollution in Manaus rose above 135 micrograms per cubic meter, many times the levels considered safe.
- A paradox. All this is happening while deforestation in Brazil's Amazon has fallen to a record low. Drought, not new clearing, is the main driver this year.
The El Niño "fire cascade"
NASA Earth system scientist Douglas Morton describes what El Niño does to tropical fire as a cascade. Because El Niño shifts rainfall around the tropics in a predictable sequence, fires tend to break out in a series of waves:
- Equatorial Asia first. Dry conditions fuel peat fires in Indonesia. In 2026 the cascade began in Borneo around early September.
- Then the central and eastern Amazon, where the dry season lengthens and intensifies. That is the stage now under way.
- Then farther north and south. Scientists expect later waves in the northern Amazon and a peak in southern Brazil and Paraguay in 2027.
Researchers first described this pattern in a 2017 study, saw it again in 2023, and say 2026 is following the same script.
Why drought turns small fires into wildfires
Rainforests are naturally too humid to burn easily. Most Amazon fires are started by people, to clear land or burn crop waste. In a normal year, many die out at the forest edge.
In a severe drought, the forest floor dries out. Escaped fires creep into the understory and spread for weeks. These slow, low fires kill trees that never evolved to survive flames.
The fires satellites miss
Understory fires burn beneath the canopy, so standard satellite fire detectors often miss them, and smoke can hide fires too. NASA researchers are using new methods to find these hidden fires, and say the real number is likely much higher than official counts. That makes it hard to say yet how much forest has been lost.
Why it matters beyond Brazil
- Climate. Burning forest releases stored carbon, adding to warming.
- Health. Smoke spreads across South America, affecting millions.
- Tipping point risk. Repeated droughts and fires could push parts of the Amazon toward drier, savanna-like conditions.
Scientists and conservation groups stress one practical message: in an El Niño year, the most effective step is to avoid burning at all, and to cut deforestation now to reduce the fuel for 2027.
Sources
Frequently asked questions
Why is the Amazon burning in 2026?
A severe drought linked to the strong 2026 El Niño has dried the forest, letting human-started fires spread.
How bad are the 2026 Amazon fires?
INPE recorded 9,045 hotspots in the first half of October, about 62% more than a year earlier, and smoke blanketed Manaus.
What is the El Niño fire cascade?
A sequence of fire outbreaks across the tropics as El Niño shifts rainfall, starting in Indonesia and moving to the Amazon and beyond.
Is deforestation causing these fires?
Deforestation is at a record low; drought is the main driver this year, though people still start most fires.
Will 2027 be worse?
Scientists expect further waves, with a possible peak in southern Brazil and Paraguay in 2027.